Published August 25, 2026 · Équipe Le Québec Vote
**Label:** Analysis
**Publication date:** August 26, 2026
**Type:** Analysis
**This article is an analysis of the electoral situation based on several recently published polls and projections, not a report on a single event. It should be read as context, distinct from a factual news story.**
**40 days before the October 5 vote, the Parti québécois keeps the lead in voting intentions in most recent polls, but its advantage is eroding and the electorate has rarely seemed so volatile. Several surveys published over the past two weeks show that a considerable share of Quebecers have not yet settled on their choice, opening the door to possible shifts once the campaign is officially launched.**
**An eroding lead**
According to a Léger poll conducted for Québecor and published in mid-August, the Parti québécois (PQ) has about 30% of voting intentions, ahead of the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) and the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), which are competing for second place. The Synopsis–La Presse poll published on August 12 paints a similar picture: the rebound the CAQ began in recent months "is running out of steam," while the PQ remains in the lead without dominating the race.
This lead, real as it is, has narrowed since the winter. An update to the Qc125 projection model, published on August 13 by analyst Philippe J. Fournier, notes that the PQ has between 34% and 37% support among francophone voters according to the most recent polls — a level that remains dominant in this segment of the electorate, but well below the highs reached earlier in the government's mandate. This is a statistical projection, to be distinguished from the raw results of an individual poll.
**Nearly one voter in two still undecided**
The figure drawing the most attention this week is the one on indecision. According to Léger data relayed on 98,5 FM, 49% of Quebec voters say they could still change their choice before voting day. A Léger–Québecor poll conducted a little earlier this summer pointed in the same direction: only 47% of voters who say they have already settled on their choice consider it final.
Jean-Marc Léger, president of the Léger polling firm, described this situation as "a kind of fog, blur, indecision" that characterizes the mood of the electorate as the vote approaches. Such a level of volatility, a few weeks before the official start of the campaign, suggests a race that could still swing once the parties have presented their full platforms and the leaders' debates have taken place.
**A vote split among five parties**
Part of this uncertainty stems from the fragmentation of the vote. Unlike previous elections, marked by a fairly clear dominance of a single party, the current race pits five parties against each other, each with between 8% and 30% of voting intentions: the PQ, the PLQ, the CAQ, the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) and Québec solidaire (QS). According to the Qc125 analysis, this split in the vote "leaves considerable uncertainty about the makeup of the next National Assembly" — a scenario in which the PQ could form a majority government even with a relatively modest score, if its opponents share the rest of the electorate fairly evenly. This is a projection scenario, not a firm prediction of the election result.
**The referendum paradox**
Another notable element of the current dynamic: support for Quebec sovereignty, the central commitment of the PQ program, has fallen sharply over the past 18 months, now standing at between 28% and 29% according to the August polls. Analysts see it as an electoral paradox: the PQ's commitment to hold a referendum on independence mobilizes its most loyal voter base, but could also hold back its expansion among a broader electorate that does not majority-support that constitutional option.
This paradox illustrates the particular nature of the coming campaign: the party leading in voting intentions must deal with an identity issue that divides the electorate, while its opponents seek to convert the prevailing indecision into support for their own parties.
**The broader political context**
This electoral dynamic is set against a political context that has itself changed over the past year, with the Coalition avenir Québec having gone through a leadership race that brought Christine Fréchette to the head of the party and the government in the spring. A Léger–Québecor poll from June also noted a drop in satisfaction with the government, from 47% in May to 38% in June, while the dissatisfaction rate climbed to 43%. This figure comes from a single survey and would need to be cross-checked with other polls before being considered a confirmed trend.
With the start of the election campaign approaching, all the parties are already stepping up their pre-election activities, whether announcing new candidacies or launching partisan ads. What happens over the coming weeks will determine whether this PQ lead, as fragile as it currently is, holds until voting day.
**Limits of this analysis**
The polls cited rely on different methodologies (sampling, margin of error, collection period) that are not all detailed in the available sources. The majority scenarios raised by Qc125 are probabilistic projections based on a statistical model, not guaranteed predictions of the October 5 result. Readers are invited to consider these figures as a snapshot of public opinion at a specific moment, liable to change before voting day.